THE one thing we know for certain about the longer-term consequences of last month’s Brexit vote is that we don’t know what all those consequences will be. For the travel industry, that is especially true. Even so, hope is currently in short supply.

Immediately after the referendum, airlines were lumped in with banks and property firms as the shares to sell. IAG, the parent company of British Airways, has lost a third of its value since the results were announced on 24th June. That is only to be expected. It seems certain that outbound travel from Britain will take a hit. As the pound falls and the rest of the world becomes more expensive, and low business confidence causes firms to rein in corporate travel, fewer Brits will go abroad. (And that is before we factor in the unknowns, such as whether British carriers will be able to maintain unfettered access to EU skies.)

The impact of Brexit on the number of people visiting the United Kingdom (if such a thing will still exist) is much less sure. But a gloomy note from Euromonitor, a research firm,...Continue reading